Interpretation of April’s ＂Report Card＂： The fundamentals of long-term economic improvement are more stable.

　　On May 15th, at the press conference of the State Council Office, the National Bureau of Statistics released the main indicators of economic operation in April. "vertically, the main indicators have remained stable, and even the growth rate has accelerated slightly. Horizontally, whether it is economic growth, employment, prices and market vitality, China’s economic operation is still in a reasonable range. " Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.

　　The employment situation is improving, and the national urban survey unemployment rate has dropped by 0.2 percentage points.

　　Stable employment will make people feel at ease. Among the April data, the most eye-catching is the employment data.

　　1— In April, 4.59 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, completing 42% of the annual plan. In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The survey unemployment rate in 31 big cities and towns was 5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month.

　　"The unemployment rate dropped in April, and one reason was that it entered the peak employment season. Judging from the local employment of migrant workers and the employment of local agricultural registered population we monitored, the unemployment rate dropped sharply, indicating that the overall market demand for employment is relatively good." Liu Aihua said.

　　Excluding employment, indicators such as production, investment and consumption have also remained generally stable.

　　Production demand is generally stable. 1— In April, the national service industry production index increased by 7.4% year-on-year, which was the same as that in the first quarter, with 7.4% in April, the second highest monthly growth rate since September last year; The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was also the same as last year, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year.

　　Investment maintained steady growth. 1— In April, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 6.1% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter and 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the whole year of last year.

　　The market sales are slow and steady. 1— In April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8% year-on-year, including 7.2% in April, and the growth rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points compared with March.

　　Some people also questioned why individual data fluctuated in April. Liu Aihua explained that there are two main reasons for the short-term fluctuations between months: First, the factors of holiday movement. For example, the growth rate of consumption, if the factor of holiday movement is deducted, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in April increased by about 8.7% year-on-year, which was the same as that in March. Second, the impact of the reduction of value-added tax. The reduction of value-added tax occurred on April 1, and many enterprises actively adjusted the production rhythm and organized production and stocking, which would have a certain impact on the distribution of production tasks between months.

　　"To judge the economic situation, we should filter out these short-term factors. Judging from the overall economic operation in the first four months, the overall situation of stability and steady progress has not changed. " Liu Aihua said that while the economy is running smoothly, the economic structure continues to be optimized.

　　The industrial structure is moving towards the middle and high end. In April, the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 11.2%, which was 5.8 percentage points faster than that of industries above designated size and 1.2 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. The high-end manufacturing industry accelerated its growth.

　　The investment structure is more perfect. 1— In April, investment in high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 11.4%, and investment in high-tech service industry increased by 15.5%, both of which were significantly faster than the growth rate of total investment.

　　The trade structure continued to be optimized. 1— In April, the import and export of general trade accounted for 59.8% of the total import and export, an increase of 1.3 points over the same period of last year.

　　In the future, CPI will not rise sharply, and there is a solid foundation for stable prices.

　　Among the economic indicators in April, the price indicator has also received much attention. In April, the consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year, of which the food price rose by 6.1%, up by 2 percentage points from the previous month. Some media have raised concerns. Why are food prices rising so fast? Will there be inflation?

　　"From the future trend, food is a very important consideration. At present, China’s grain and oil supply is relatively sufficient and the price is relatively stable, which has laid a good foundation for the stability of the overall price. " Liu Aihua explained that in April, the three categories of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and livestock meat all increased by more than 10% year-on-year, and the impact on the overall CPI was about 0.2— Between 0.4 percentage points. However, there is no need to worry too much about the trend of vegetable prices and meat prices in the future.

　　Fresh vegetables and fruits with strong seasonality are greatly affected by seasonality. The price of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits rose in April, which was obviously affected by seasonal factors of extreme weather. These seasonal short-term shocks were not sustainable, and the price increase of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits would not last at a high level.

　　Similarly, with the gradual recovery of meat prices, farmers’ enthusiasm for replenishing columns will also increase accordingly. It should be said that after a period of time, the production capacity can make up for the shortage and shortage of supply, and the price of meat will be stabilized.

　　With regard to inflation, besides food, there are two other considerations. One is the price of industrial consumer goods, and the other is the price of services. "China’s industrial system is relatively complete, production capacity is relatively surplus in many fields, supply capacity is sufficient, and industrial consumer goods do not have the basis for a sharp rise. The service price has maintained a steady increase since last year, but it is relatively high. After years of vigorous policy guidance, private capital has continuously entered, and the cultivation and development of the service market is relatively fast. Although the growth rate remains relatively high, it is relatively stable. " Liu Aihua said that, on the whole, whether from food or industrial consumer goods and services, CPI will not rise sharply in the future, and there is a solid foundation for stable prices.

　　With good resilience, sufficient potential and strong vitality, China’s economy’s ability to cope with external shocks has been continuously enhanced.

　　"From the performance of China’s economy last year, the ability to resist risks is constantly increasing." Liu Aihua said that according to this year’s data, GDP in the first quarter increased by 6.4%, which is generally considered to be better than expected. "At present, China’s economy has shown a state of good resilience, full potential and strong vitality, and China’s ability to cope with external shocks is constantly increasing. The performance of the data can be said that facts speak louder than words. "

　　Liu Aihua analyzed that China’s characteristics of good economic resilience, sufficient potential and strong vitality will continue. No matter in the short or medium term, the positive factors have not changed.

　　Good toughness. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, China’s economy has a relatively complete industrial system and a relatively complete infrastructure, with a working-age population of nearly 900 million, of which 170 million are high-quality talents with higher education or vocational education. The combination of material foundation and talent foundation has laid a solid foundation for sustained, stable and healthy economic development.

　　"The supply-side structural reform since the end of 2015 has played a positive role in improving the quality and level of supply. The quality changes, power changes and efficiency changes that have taken place in the supply field will provide lasting impetus for the high-quality economic development in the future. " Liu Aihua said.

　　Full potential. China has a population of nearly 1.4 billion and the most growing middle-income group. The trend of consumption upgrading is more and more obvious, with great consumption potential, and consumption has become the main engine of economic growth. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that promoting the formation of a strong domestic market will be a key task in 2019. With the increase of residents’ income, the improvement of consumption environment, the improvement of product quality and the accelerated implementation of a series of policies and measures, the consumption potential will be further released. Investment still has great potential in promoting industrial upgrading and filling the shortcomings of development.

　　Strong vitality. In recent years, a series of policies and measures such as decentralization, tax reduction and fee reduction have been continuously implemented, and the business environment in China has been continuously optimized, and the enthusiasm for innovation and entrepreneurship has been continuously improved. In April, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has been in the expansion range for the second consecutive month, and the expected index of production and business activities is also in the relatively high boom range of more than 56% for the third consecutive month; The business activity index of non-manufacturing industry has maintained a relatively high prosperity, which has been above 54% for four consecutive months, and the expected business activity index is higher.

　　"At present, China’s inflation level and fiscal deficit ratio are still relatively low, foreign exchange reserves are relatively sufficient, macro-policy operation space is still relatively large, and policy tools are relatively sufficient. On the whole, the macro-policy space is an important guarantee for promoting the stable and healthy development of China’s economy in the future. " Liu Aihua said, "China’s long-term economic fundamentals are more stable, its development space continues to expand, its ability to cope with external challenges continues to improve, and its economy has a solid foundation for maintaining stable and healthy development."

　　People’s Daily (11th edition, May 16, 2019)