Pension will rise for 14 consecutive years next year. Expert： The increase is expected to slow down to about 5%.

　　Measures such as accelerating the pace of investment and operation and enriching the social security fund with state-owned capital will be effective.

　　Pensions will rise 14 times in a row next year

　　Experts predict that in view of the economic transformation and the pressure of payment, the increase of pension is expected to slow down to about 5%.

　　Since 2005, China’s pension level has continued to increase steadily, and by 2017, it has achieved 13 consecutive increases. Despite the rising pressure on pension payment, relevant departments have continuously introduced measures. Since the beginning of this year, a package of policies such as starting the investment and operation of the basic old-age insurance fund and transferring some state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund have been introduced one after another. Many experts said that there is no suspense in the 14 th consecutive increase in pensions in 2018. However, due to multiple factors such as slowing economic growth and accelerating aging, the increase in pensions may be slightly lower than that in 2017, about 5%.

　　Many experts said that as far as China’s current policy orientation and economic growth rate are concerned, pensions will continue to rise. "The exponential growth of pension is the proper meaning in the design of pension system." Zheng Bingwen, director of the World Social Security Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that pensions will undoubtedly rise 14 times in a row next year. "Considering that the economic growth rate will be between 6% and 7% next year, and the average social wage will also be raised, according to the important decision since the comprehensive deepening reform in 2012, the pension will be raised accordingly."

　　Zhang Yinghua, an executive researcher at the World Social Security Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, told the Economic Information Daily that the increase of pension is to let retirees share the fruits of economic development, and at the same time, the living standard will not drop significantly due to rising prices, so the increase of pension will generally be linked to wages or prices. At present, China’s economy is changing from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, and the price increase is not large, so the corresponding growth rate of wages and pensions will also slow down.

　　In fact, pension adjustment, as a normal mechanism, has been growing rapidly in the past decade. In this regard, Professor Yang Yansui from the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University told the Economic Information Daily that this was mainly due to the low salary base of retired elderly people in the past. "The pension adjustment mechanism should be linked to the inflation rate, thus ensuring the purchasing power of pensions. The pension growth rate in 2017 is 5.5%, the pension growth rate in 2018 may be 5%, and it may be 4.5% in the future, which is in line with the inflation rate. " Yang Yansui said.

　　Qi Chuanjun, deputy secretary-general of the World Social Security Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences, also said in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that the pension will increase by about 5% next year. "This is mainly due to two considerations. First, the economy has entered a new normal, the growth rate has slowed down compared with previous years, and the growth rate of fiscal revenue has also shown the same trend. At the same time, the growth rate of basic endowment insurance fund expenditure is obviously greater than the growth rate of income, and financial sustainability faces certain risks; On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve has started the process of shrinking the table, and the world may enter the interest rate hike cycle, so inflationary pressure is not great. " Qi Chuanjun said.

　　Many experts also pointed out that the continuous sharp increase in pensions has also produced certain negative effects. For example, the insured person has the expectation that the pension will be raised rapidly all the time, and some insured people choose to retire early. For individuals, even under the same factors, there is a phenomenon of "upside down" that the pension of post-retirees is less than that of first retirees. "We should treat pension growth rationally. Too high expectations will increase the pressure on decision-making. Too fast growth will also bring pressure on the working generation to pay taxes, which will easily lead to intergenerational contradictions, and it is also contrary to the central tax reduction and fee reduction policy." Zhang Yinghua told reporters.

　　In addition, the acceleration of aging and the rising cost of transformation have also made the ability to pay insufficient in some areas. Recently, China Social Insurance Annual Development Report 2016 issued by the Social Security Administration Center of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security mentioned that among the income and expenditure of pension funds in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, the cumulative balance of pension funds in 13 statistical regions has been less than one year.

　　Qi Chuanjun said that to maintain the sustainability of the basic old-age insurance fund, it is important to open up sources, and the expansion and reform of pension investment channels determine the direction of the basic old-age insurance fund for enterprise employees to a certain extent.

　　In fact, in the face of the increasing pressure of pension payment, recently, China has intensively introduced a series of new social security policies. For example, we will speed up the research and promote the national overall planning of endowment insurance, and prepare to take the first step next year, first implementing the central adjustment system of basic endowment insurance funds. At the same time, this year’s pension started the pace of investment and operation. In November, the State Council announced the Implementation Plan for Transferring Part of State-owned Capital to Enrich the Social Security Fund, which made it clear that the central and local state-owned and state-controlled large and medium-sized enterprises and financial institutions were included in the transfer scope, and the transfer ratio was unified to 10% of the state-owned shares of enterprises. The equity dividends and operating income were earmarked to make up for the gap in the basic old-age insurance fund for enterprise employees. Investment in the basic old-age insurance fund is also developing steadily. According to the data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in November, the governments of nine provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) such as Beijing and Anhui signed entrusted investment contracts with the Social Security Fund Council, with a total contract value of 430 billion yuan, of which 180 billion yuan has been received and started to invest.

　　Many experts pointed out that the introduction of a series of new policies will alleviate the pressure of pension payment to a certain extent and ensure the steady growth of pensions for retired workers. "At present, the pressure on old-age care is increasing. Under the principle of safe investment and steady investment, it is necessary to invest in the surplus funds of the old-age insurance fund in various ways, which is conducive to improving the income level and realizing the preservation and appreciation of the fund." Chu Fuling, director of the China Social Security Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics, indicated.

　　However, in Yang Yansui’s view, to solve the problem of pension sustainability, we need to go hand in hand, build a multi-level pension insurance system, and focus on increasing the development of enterprise annuities and individual pension systems. On the one hand, it is to change the current pension structure, reduce local differences through central planning of basic pensions, and on the other hand, accelerate the reform of enterprise annuities as the second pillar, "accelerate the development of individual pensions, establish pension asset accounts through individuals, implement tax relief, let individuals choose between trusts, funds and insurance, strengthen the construction of the third pillar, and at the same time force the transformation and upgrading of such financial industries to increase pension accumulation and safeguard the rights and interests of the people." Yang Yansui said. (Ban Juanjuan)