House prices in 100 cities rose for 12 months, and the inventory scale in 70 cities fell overall.

　　On the 31st, China Index Academy released the residential price index of 100 cities in July. In that month, the average price of residential buildings in 100 cities showed a "double rise" for the 12th consecutive month, and the increase rates both expanded. At the same time, the latest inventory data released by Yiju Research Institute shows that the overall scale of residential inventory in 70 monitored cities continues to decline, with 20 cities facing "inventory shortage" in the second half of the year. Based on the changes in inventory and house prices in the first half of the year, industry analysts believe that there will be obvious differentiation in house prices in different cities in the second half of the year. Based on this, local regulatory policies will pay more attention to differentiation, and some hot cities will be further strictly controlled, and the price increase will also face a callback.

　　Heating up 100 cities, housing prices have "double rise" for 12 consecutive months.

　　According to the survey data of all samples of newly-built houses in 100 cities across the country by Central Reference Institute, in July 2016, the average price of newly-built houses in 100 cities across the country was 12,009 yuan/square meter, up 1.63% from the previous month, with an increase of 0.31 percentage point over the previous month.

　　Judging from the number of rising and falling cities, 66 cities rose month-on-month, 30 cities fell month-on-month, and 4 cities were flat. Compared with last month, the number of cities whose prices rose month-on-month decreased by 7, among which 29 cities increased by more than 1%, a decrease of 1 from last month; The number of cities whose prices fell month-on-month increased by 8, including 2 cities with a decline of more than 1%, a decrease from last month.

　　On a year-on-year basis, the average price of residential buildings in 100 cities nationwide (newly built) increased by 12.39% compared with the same period of last year, with an increase of 1.21 percentage points over the previous month. According to the median calculation, the median price of housing in 100 cities (newly built) in China is 7121 yuan/square meter, down 0.27% from the previous month and up 1.83% from the same period last year.

　　In addition, the average price of residential buildings (newly built) in ten major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai in July was 22,945 yuan/square meter, up 2.20% from the previous month, with an increase of 0.68 percentage points over the previous month. Among the top ten cities, Chongqing (the main city) and Guangzhou decreased by 0.35% and 0.16% respectively, while the other eight cities increased, among which Shanghai rose by 2.93%, ranking first.

　　It is worth mentioning that, compared with last July, the housing prices in the top ten cities increased by 17.19% year-on-year, with an increase of 1.21 percentage points. Except Chengdu, the other nine cities in the top ten cities are on the rise year-on-year. Among them, Shenzhen rose 41.15%, ranking first; Nanjing, Shanghai and Wuhan rose by more than 20%; Beijing, Tianjin and Hangzhou increased by 10% to 20%; Guangzhou and Chongqing (the main city) rose within 10%.

　　On the whole, the average price of residential buildings in 100 cities increased in July, both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the month-on-month increase for 15 consecutive months and the year-on-year increase for 12 consecutive months.

　　Pressure in the second half of the year, 20 cities ushered in "inventory shortage"

　　In the first half of 2016, major cities across the country actively destocked, and the effect gradually became obvious. On the 31st, the residential inventory report of 70 cities in China released by Yiju Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that the inventory scale of 70 cities continues to decline and the destocking cycle continues to accelerate. The ratio of storage to sales in some cities is far less than 8 months, which reflects the fact that the inventory is seriously insufficient.

　　By the end of June 2016, the total inventory of new commercial housing in 70 cities monitored by the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute was 431.83 million square meters, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.7% from the same period last year. Compared with the scale of 454.25 million square meters at the beginning of the year, the inventory reduction trend in the first half of the year was obvious.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the Economic Information Daily reporter, "On average, each city reduced its inventory by 320,000 square meters in half a year. In addition, from the year-on-year data, these 70 cities have maintained a trend of year-on-year decline in inventory for 10 consecutive months, reflecting a good destocking orientation. Some cities quickly moved from ‘ in the second quarter of this year. De-stocking ’ Switch to ‘ Replenish inventory ’ Strategically, the land market transactions are exciting. "

　　Specifically, in the first half of the year, the inventory of 44 cities in 70 cities showed a year-on-year decline. Among them, Hefei, Nanjing, Dachang, Suzhou and Kunshan are the five cities with the strongest destocking efforts, and their inventory area decreased by 66.5%, 56.2%, 49.2%, 47.4% and 41.8% respectively. In addition, the inventory scale of 26 cities has risen instead of falling. The five cities with the largest year-on-year growth rate were Maoming, Jining, Taiyuan, Huainan and Haikou, with year-on-year growth rates of 69.2%, 67.0%, 56.2%, 48.9% and 40.0% respectively.

　　From the perspective of the future inventory destocking cycle, as of the end of June, the inventory-to-sales ratio of new commercial housing in 70 cities was 11.0, which also means that the market needs to digest these inventories in 11 months. Yan Yuejin said that generally speaking, 14 months is the balanced value or reasonable value of the ratio of deposit to sales, so when the ratio of deposit to sales is less than 14 months, it can basically be considered that the pressure of destocking is not great, and the rise in house prices is closely related to it. He predicted that in the second half of 2016, the curve will still hover around 12 months, which means that the driving force for future housing price increases in these cities is still relatively large.

　　In Yan Yuejin’s view, the idea of destocking in the second half of 2016 will change. Some cities continue to implement the destocking policy, while some cities need to actively replenish their stocks. Among them, for cities with long destocking cycle, active destocking is still the main task. In cities with a small destocking cycle, subsequent replenishment of inventory or additional land development investment will be the focus.

　　Yan Yuejin told the Economic Information Daily that from the perspective of regional structure, there are 20 cities with a deposit-sales ratio of less than or equal to 8 months, including Hefei, Nanjing, Yanjiao, Kunshan, Gu ‘an, Dachang, Wuhan and Xianghe. Such cities have a small ratio of storage to sales, and have already faced the problem of "inventory shortage", and their urgency of replenishing inventory is no less than that of first-and second-tier key cities.

　　The trend of housing prices in different cities tends to be divided.

　　In fact, after the sharp rise in house prices and land prices in recent months, the regulatory policies of several cities have been tightened in July. During the month, Tianjin, Wuhan and other cities lowered the ceiling of provident fund loans, Shanghai proposed to do a good job in real estate credit prevention and control, and Xiamen introduced a series of measures from seven aspects, such as residential land supply and housing loan policy, which released tightening signals in many ways and had a certain impact on market expectations.

　　According to the analysis of the relevant person in charge of the Central Reference Hospital, in the first half of 2016, the overall price increase in the country further expanded, and the price increase trend was transmitted step by step. Since the stimulus effect of easing policy became effective in 2015, first-tier cities have taken the lead in setting off a wave of price increases. In 2016, the rising trend of house prices was gradually transmitted to core second-tier cities such as Nanjing and Suzhou and first-tier surrounding cities such as Dongguan, Zhongshan and Langfang.

　　The person in charge told the Economic Information Daily that "the continuous loose monetary and credit policies are the main reasons for the current round of housing price increases. In view of the future market trend, due to the different characteristics of different cities, the price increase of each city will be obviously differentiated. "

　　First of all, for first-and second-tier hotspot cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hefei, with the trend of tightening policy control, the price increase in some cities will be further narrowed. In order to stabilize the development of the property market, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities have successively introduced tightening policies to strictly control the excessive rise in housing prices. In the short term, the tightening policy has achieved certain results, and the price increase in these cities has begun to narrow. According to the data of the Central Reference Institute, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in Shenzhen has dropped significantly recently, and the contradiction between supply and demand has gradually eased. Moreover, the price of second-hand houses has turned down in the past two months, which may further affect the market expectation of new houses.

　　Secondly, the demand in Wuhan, Tianjin and other cities has been greatly released this year, the supply is relatively insufficient, the inventory has dropped significantly, the land and housing market is relatively healthy, and buyers and enterprises are more rational. House prices in these cities have maintained a rising trend for some time, and market participants are optimistic about the market trend of these cities, and there is still room for development in the future.

　　Thirdly, the housing prices in hot cities around the first line are divorced from the fundamental support of the city, and the increase has gradually slowed down. For example, in Dongguan, Huizhou, Langfang, Kunshan and other cities, there was no obvious increase in early housing prices, and this round of rising momentum benefited from the spillover effect of first-tier cities. In the first half of the year, the property market in these cities entered a rapid development channel, and the price increase ranked first in the country; At the same time, due to the rapid rise of housing prices, it gradually broke away from the support of urban fundamentals, and the price increase began to narrow in May and June, and there is a possibility of further decline in the future.

　　On the whole, the relevant person in charge of the Central Reference Institute believes that the policies around real estate credit may be adjusted one after another in the future. In view of the market differentiation trend, local regulatory policies will pay more attention to differentiation, some hot cities will be further strictly controlled, and third-and fourth-tier cities will continue to focus on destocking. From the perspective of the land market, with the strengthening of the supervision of the phenomenon of "land king" in hot cities, the land market will cool down.