The influence of Mali upor on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 21st Hot Question and Answer: The Influence of Mali upor on the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict
Xinhua News Agency reporter Hu Ruoyu
Russian Defense Minister shoigu reported to President Putin on the 21st that Russian troops have taken control of other areas in upor, Mali, except Azov Steel Plant. On the same day, Putin ordered the cancellation of the plan to storm the Azov steel plant and changed it to a blockade to prevent any armed personnel from escaping.
Analysts believe that controlling upor, a strategic town in Mali, is of great significance for Russia to achieve its operational objectives and promote a new stage of operations.
Why did Russia cancel the storm plan?
Shoigu said that at present, more than 2,000 armed men are "firmly" trapped in the Azov steel plant, and the storm will take three to four days. Putin ordered the cancellation of the attack and changed to a blockade. Putin said that the cancellation of the storm is to protect the lives of Russian soldiers. In addition, Russia will ensure the safety of the people who surrendered to the Ukrainian army and give them due treatment.
Azov Iron and Steel Plant was built in the Soviet Union, and its industrial zone has its own power supply and water supply system, as well as railways and overpasses. In order to resist nuclear war, Azov Steel Plant has built a huge tunnel network, which is easy to defend but difficult to attack. According to media reports such as the US "Veterans Today" website, the total length of the tunnel is about 24 kilometers, the deepest part is 30 meters, and the depth is 6 floors. It is difficult to blow up from the ground, and it is convenient for the Ukrainian army to transfer, use underground communication equipment to contact and organize ambushes from different entrances and exits.
Yang Zhen, deputy director of the Northeast Asia Research Center of Shanghai University of Political Science and Law and a military expert, believes that there are multiple considerations for Russian troops to change to blockade. First, avoid storming steel mills with complete fortifications and causing heavy casualties to the Russian army. Second, I hope to arrest foreign mercenaries and even NATO military personnel speculated by public opinion, so as to counter the West in public opinion. The third is to promote change by pressure. The Ukrainian defenders are exhausted under the continuous high-intensity war, and the siege may lead to infighting. In addition, getting more evacuation time for civilians is also one of the considerations.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said earlier that there are a large number of foreign mercenaries among Ukrainian armed personnel in upor, Mali. Radio interception found that in addition to Ukrainian and Russian, Ukrainian radio dialogue also uses other languages, mainly European languages.
Why is Mali upor important?
Upor, Mali is the second largest city in Donetsk region, with a population of about 400,000 before the conflict, and the largest port of Azov Sea is located here.
The capture of upor, Mali, meant that Russian troops built a "land bridge" along the coast of the Azov Sea, connecting Crimea and Donbass, and then going to the Russian interior. The coast of Azov Sea will be completely controlled by the civilian armed forces in Russia and eastern Ukraine.
Upor, Mali is the base camp of the Ukrainian National Guard "Azov Camp". Analysts believe that "Azov Camp" is a nationalist militant in the eyes of Russia. The occupation of upor, Mali, and the elimination of the main force of "Azov Camp" mean that one of the main goals of Russia’s special military operations "de-Nazism" has been realized to a great extent.
Shoigu reported to Putin on 21st that more than 4,000 Ukrainian armed personnel were annihilated and 1,478 surrendered during the capture of upor in Mali.
Yang Zhen believes that when shoigu announced the progress of the war in upor, Mali, it was intended to offset the negative impact caused by the sinking of the flagship cruiser "Moscow" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet a week ago. On the one hand, it warned the West not to act rashly, on the other hand, it showed the Russian military and civilians that the battlefield dominance was under control. The remaining Ukrainian troops in Azov Iron and Steel Plant lack heavy weapons and are unable to pose a substantial threat to Russian-controlled areas and land passages.
What changes will occur in the war?
Analysts predict that after Russian troops occupy Wooper, Mali, they can free up their forces to carry out a new stage of special military operations.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the evening of 19th that Russian troops had launched the Battle of Donbass. On the 20th, Liesto, adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that Russian troops stormed Kharkov, Lugansk and Donetsk on the same day.
Yang Zhen pointed out that after controlling Wooper in Mali, the Russian army is expected to alleviate the shortage of troops, and then lay siege to the main force of Ukrainian troops in Donbass. "Russian special military operations have always been carried out around the three goals of demilitarization, de-Nazism and neutrality in Ukraine, so it is not the primary goal to kill each other’s effective forces as much as possible." Yang Zhen said.
Suslov, a professor at the Center for European and International Studies of the Russian State Higher School of Economics, believes that all parties will still strive to sign a peace agreement in the near future. (Participating in reporters: Hua Di, Zhao Yan)