[2023 China Economic Semi-annual Report] Price stability is not deflation, and China’s economic growth is picking up obviously.

　　Guangming net news(Reporter Yang Yanan and Zhao Yanyan) With the publication of the semi-annual economic report of China in 2023, China’s economic development trend has once again attracted global attention. The data shows that the consumer price in June was flat year-on-year, from the increase of 0.2% last month to the same year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 5.4% year-on-year. "Is China’s economy in deflation" has become a hot topic for discussion.

　　In response, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, responded at the press conference of the State Council Office held on the 17th: "Generally speaking, there is no deflation in China’s economy at present, and there will be no deflation in the next stage. Although the price is currently at a low stage, from the perspective of economic growth and money supply, China’s economy does not meet the conditions of deflation. "

　　Steady word, economic operation is picking up.

　　Deflation mainly refers to the continuous negative growth of prices and the downward trend of money supply, which is usually accompanied by economic recession. As far as economic growth is concerned, the data show that the GDP increased by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year and 6.3% in the second quarter, which was significantly faster than the economic growth rate of 3% in the whole year of last year, and the economic growth rebounded obviously.

　　On July 10, 2023, a LED photoelectric semiconductor device company in Ruichang, Jiangxi Province, workers rushed to make orders on the intelligent production line. (photo by Wei Dongsheng/bright picture)

　　Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that after the economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, domestic production has accelerated its recovery, but the demand is constrained by factors such as income distribution differentiation and unstable income expectations, and the recovery is still lagging behind. "The time difference between supply and demand recovery is the main reason for the low CPI operation this year."

　　Fu Linghui said that with the economic recovery, the gradual expansion of market demand and the smooth economic cycle, the relationship between supply and demand will gradually improve, and the high base factor will be gradually eliminated in the same period last year, and the price increase will gradually return to a reasonable level.

　　Precision drip irrigation, monetary policy continues to exert its strength.

　　At present, China’s macro-economy has recovered steadily, and broad money has maintained rapid growth. At the end of June, the broad money supply (M2), the stock of social financing scale and RMB loans increased by 11.3%, 9.0% and 11.3% respectively, all of which were at a high level, which was obviously different from the typical deflation in history.

　　Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said at the press conference of the State Council Office held on the 14th that prices in China were relatively stable against the background of high external economic inflation. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase of CPI has fluctuated and dropped, and it may go down in July, mainly due to the time lag of demand recovery and the phased phenomenon caused by cardinal utility.

　　China has a strong economic resilience, a large market space and a rich policy toolbox. It insists on implementing a prudent monetary policy, scientifically grasps the strength, rhythm and key points of the policy, and does not engage in "flood irrigation". It has a relatively complete control system, rich practical experience and the ability to effectively cope with abnormal market price fluctuations.

　　Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People’s Bank of China, pointed out at the press conference of the State Council Office held on the 14th that in recent years, China has adhered to a prudent and normal monetary policy, with sufficient policy space and rich policy tools to cope with all kinds of new challenges and changes. Subsequently, according to the needs of the economic and price situation, the People’s Bank of China will intensify macro-control, accurately and forcefully implement a prudent monetary policy, and comprehensively use various monetary policy tools such as the deposit reserve ratio, medium-term lending facilities, and open market operations to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, maintain a reasonable growth of money and credit, and promote the steady decline of corporate financing and residents’ credit costs.

　　Adequate supply, the overall low price operation.

　　Since the beginning of this year, China’s economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, market demand has gradually expanded, production and supply have continued to increase, and economic operation has shown a good trend of recovery. From the perspective of supply fundamentals, China’s prices have a solid foundation for maintaining stable operation.

　　On July 16, 2023, Golden Beach Beer City, Qingdao, Shandong Province, held a fireworks display at the Oktoberfest. (photo by Yu Fangping/bright picture)

　　The data shows that China’s summer grain production has achieved a bumper harvest, and the market supply of vegetables, fruits, meat, poultry, eggs and milk is generally sufficient. In the first half of the year, the output of pork, cattle, sheep and poultry increased by 3.6% year-on-year. Industrial production continued to recover. In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.8% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter.

　　From the perspective of development foundation, China has a complete industrial system, rich human resources, convenient software and hardware infrastructure network, and the safety and security capabilities of grain, energy resources and industrial chain supply chains have been continuously enhanced, and the economic impact resistance and toughness have been significantly improved. Villi, deputy director of the National Economic Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the regular press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission in July, "We are confident, qualified and capable of promoting the continuous improvement of the economic structure, the continuous enhancement of growth momentum and the continuous improvement of development trend, and achieving the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year."

　　"Overall, the low CPI increase is the result of multiple factors at home and abroad, which is staged." Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, China’s economy and society have resumed normal operation in an all-round way, market demand has gradually expanded, production and supply have continued to increase, and economic operation has shown a good trend of recovery. From the next stage, with the improvement of China’s economic recovery, the gradual expansion of market demand and the smooth economic cycle, the relationship between supply and demand will gradually improve. "Coupled with the gradual elimination of the high base factor in the same period last year, the price increase will gradually return to a reasonable level."